The Reasons Middle Eastern Investment Has Not Transformed Newcastle into Title Contenders

Eddie Howe is not prone to dramatics or sweeping public pronouncements. Based on his usual demeanor, his press conference after Sunday’s 3-1 defeat counts as a furious tirade. His side scored first but the opposition took the lead by half-time, while also hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick revoked by VAR, prompting Howe to make a triple change at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe this indicated of our performance level at that stage during the match and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. In fact, I cannot recall I have during my tenure as head coach of the club, therefore I believed the squad needed some shaking up at the break. This explains why I made those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at half-time and the team did stabilise somewhat in the second half, without ever appearing like they might get back into the game against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine league matches. Given how packed the centre of the standings is, with a mere three-point gap dividing third from 11th, and nine points between second and 17th, a run of 12 points from 10 games has not placed Newcastle adrift but, equally, they must not end the campaign in thirteenth place.

The Problem of Expectations

The problem partially is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle possess the wealthiest owners in the world. The expectation when the Saudi fund bought 80% of the club in 2021 was that it would have a transformative effect, as Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The difference is that both of those owners took over prior to the advent of financial fair play rules (and the current allegations against City relate to whether they violated those regulations once they were implemented).

Financial regulations restrict the capacity of owners, no matter how wealthy, to invest funds on their teams and therefore likely might have slowed any Saudi attempt to raise the team to the level of Manchester City. But there is no need for the club's spending to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have invested further and remained within the limit – or simply taken a fairly minor European fine since their major issue is primarily with the continental than the Premier League regulation.

Stadium Spending and PSR Regulations

Besides which, infrastructure spending is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the simplest method to raise income to create more PSR flexibility would be to extend or redevelop the stadium. Considering the site of St James’ Park, with listed buildings on multiple sides, in reality that likely implies constructing an entirely new stadium. There was talk in spring of possibly making the short move to Leazes Park – opposition from community organizations might have been surmounted with a commitment to build a new park on the current stadium site – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has occurred substantial cutbacks from the Saudi fund on a variety of projects as it shifts focus on local investments; the attitude to the football club seems completely in keeping with that strategic shift.

The Alexander Isak Saga

The star striker episode was arose from that conflict. A bolder leadership could have framed his transfer as necessary to free up capital for additional spending; instead there was a unsuccessful attempt to retain him. This resulted in Newcastle started the campaign amid a feeling of frustration despite the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The start was indifferent: one win in their initial six fixtures.

Yet it seemed a turning point was reached. They secured five in six prior to the weekend, a run that included convincing wins of Union Saint-Gilloise and Benfica in the European competition. This explains the display against West Ham was such a shock. The problem perhaps is that the team's approach is extremely intense, very high-octane; a minor decrease in intensity can have profound effects. Maybe the strain of Premier League, European and cup competition, five fixtures in a fortnight, had taken its toll. Woltemade started all five games and appeared especially weary.

The Nature of Modern Football

This is the nature of today's football. Coaches must be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unlucky that Wissa’s fitness issue has left him short of attacking options but, no matter how reasonable the reasons, the weekend's performance was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a ground primed to turn on its own side.

Howe will hope it was merely a temporary setback, one of those days when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the European competition in the future, let alone one day mount an actual championship bid, they cannot be as unreliable as they have been.